**HCL Workload Automation, Version 9.4**

# Estimated duration of a job and related confidence factor

The **estimated duration** of a job run,
and related **confidence factor**, are provided by logman as part
of the daily planning cycle. The estimated duration of a job run is
based on the average of its preceding runs, calculated analyzing five
different time series: GLOBAL, WEEK_DAY, MONTH_DAY, MONTH_DAY_REVERSE,
RUN_CYCLE. To compute the average run time for a job, logman divides
the total run time for all successful runs by the number of successful
runs. If a large number of runs is used to compute the average, a
sudden change in a job's run time will not immediately be reflected
in the average. To respond more quickly to such changes, you can use
the `smooth` option so that the average can be weighted
in favor of the most recent job runs. Use the `-smooth` option
to enter a weighting factor, as a percentage, for current job runs.
For example, the `logman -smooth 40` command will cause
logman to use a weighting factor of 40 percent for the most recent
runs of the job, and 60 percent for the existing average. The `logman
-smooth 100` command will cause the most recent runs of the
job to override the existing average. The default value for the -smooth
option is 10.

Logman retains the statistical data of job runs in the HCL Workload Automation database. There is no limit to the number of job instances retained in the job history.

For each critical job, a percentage value indicates the confidence with which the critical job will meet its deadline. The confidence factor is calculated as the normal cumulative density function: it is the probability that the job will end within its deadline, calculated by using a Gaussian function, where the estimated end time is the mean and the estimated end variance is the standard deviation. To reduce the performance effort to a minimum, the confidence factor is calculated only when the estimated times are updated. Consequently, the value of the confidence factor always corresponds to the latest calculation.

A 95% confidence factor is associated to the estimated duration of a job. The confidence factor provides an estimated range of values, which is likely to include the job duration. For example, if the estimated duration of a job is 00:03:00, with a confidence factor of 00:00:05, it means that you can be 95% certain that the actual duration of the job is included between (00:03:00 - 00:00:05) and (00:03:00 + 00:00:05), that is, between 00:02:55 and 00:03:05.

**conman**command line:

`showjobs `*job_name*;props

You can display the same
information from the **Monitor Workload**of the Dynamic Workload Console.

- For a new job, whose estimated duration is set, by default, to 00:00:00. You might want to set the estimated duration to an initial value that is more realistic, based on your experience.
- For a job whose estimated duration has a high confidence factor. You might want to change the job scheduling and, consequently, its estimated duration.

You can override the estimated duration of
a job in a job stream from the **Workload Designer** of the Dynamic Workload Console.

An alternative tool that provides estimated job duration
forecasts and confidence intervals through the same media is based
on **SPSS** statistics. See Using advanced statistics to forecast the estimated duration of a job for
details.